Main Card:
• Middleweight: Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch
Tim Boetsch's middleweight career has been off to a pleasant start. Some feel he's being thrown to the wolves by drawing Anderson Silva's last title challenger in this outing, but I disagree. Boetsch presents the strength and potential style to muscle Okami around the same way Sonnen did. A good chin, brute power, and some judo chops (see what I did there) make Boetsch a formidable opponent, even for A-list opposition. He's made it clear that he should have more eyes on his career than most surging middleweights. The problem is Boetsch doesn't posess the speed of Sonnen, nor does he posess the gas tank to keep the same frenetic, relentless pace that Sonnen put on Okami. Few do, and this isn't to say Boetsch has garbage cardio, it's just that it's not elite. Also standing in his way is that his style is one that Okami is used to dealing with. I expect Okami to find his way out of a few wild striking exchanges and some bullying to take a forgettable decision like the old Okami was known for. The only X-factor here for upset potential may be if Okami's not motivated after falling to the champ after finally receiving his long-awaited title shot. Still, though. Okami by decision.
• Featherweight Bout: Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski
In a battle to potentially determine the next
• Lightweight Bout: Anthony Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon
In a bout that is sure to deliver fireworks, be it a slugfest or a tactical battle, the last WEC Lightweight Champ, Anthony Pettis, attempts to get in the mix by derailing the momentum of repeat spoiler, Joe Lauzon. Lauzon hopes to remind people that he shouldn't be the underdog as often as billed, thus making a case for a potential contender label of his own. Pettis may be getting labeled as the more one-dimensional of the two because of the way in which he lost to Clay Guida, but I see the two as being equally well-rounded. Pettis is great off his back, even though I'd give Lauzon the overall advantage on the floor by a measurable margin. Lauzon, on the other hand, is perfectly competent on the feet, though Pettis is the clear superior in this department. All in all, I wouldn't be shocked to see either man appear victorious. In the end, though, I see Pettis shining through in his ability to keep the fight standing enough to pepper Lauzon and drill him with significant strikes being the key to victory. Anthony Pettis via competitive, yet clear-cut unanimous decision.
• Welterweight Bout: Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields
Both men are in desperate need of a win here to not only remain in the mix, but remain in the good graces of UFC brass. The eyes tend to be on Akiyama as the promotions' bigger failure with some going as far as saying he's been the biggest bust ever. I disagree; in fact, between the two, I think Shields has been more dissappointing. Akiyama, perhaps unfairly, was pinned with the high-hopes of being the man to defeat Anderson Silva by Dana White. In spite of a well-rounded game, middleweight proved to be too much for Akiyama, although he was able to give the division's major players fits aside from Vitor Belfort. In the end, it is clear that Akiyama is most definitely UFC-level, just not an A-lister. He hopes to restore his initial high-hopes and reinvent his career Madonna-style at 170.
I believe Shields to be the larger bust after the UFC almost-immediately thrust him into title contention, essentially billing him as GSP's next opponent before he'd even debuted against Martin Kampmann. His success in Strikeforce and other non-UFC promotions was played up to epic proportions, with his reputation being pushed as a top pound-for-pound player. Since his arrival, he's gone 1-2. Or 0-3, depending on whether you subscribe to the theory that Kampmann won that night. Unlike Akiyama, all of his performances have been easily forgettable, aside from maybe just the Jake Ellenberger fight, albeit for the wrong reasons.
Shields' best chance is pinned upon his ability to implement his specific brand of the ground game, coined, American Jiu Jitsu. His best bet is to clinch with Akiyama and attempt to drag the Japanese-Korean to the ground and implement his dominant top-game submissions. Or perhaps hope that Akiyama will judo throw him into a position where he can work his magic.
Akiyama enjoys a clear-cut advantage in the stand-up. He hit with plenty of power at middleweight, and that power will only multiply in comparison to his smaller welterweight counterparts. He will be able to toss his new opponents to the mat with greater ease given his strength advantage. His submission game has always been more than competent, with his only submission loss being accounted for at the hands of cardio, rather than Chris Leben being better than him on the floor.
A cut to a new weight class is always a huge X-factor and Akiyama yet-again finds himself being fed to the wolves immediately. The other most significant X-factor is where the fight takes place. Although Akiyama's no slouch on the ground, Shields has proven time and time again that he is on another level with his submission game. And while Shields can tolerate the stand-up game long enough to implement his game or (usually) not get finished on the feet, Akiyama posesses the ability to end his night in violent fashion.
In the end, Akiyama will be able to keep the fight standing and avoid being submitted when it hits the floor. If it's standing as long as I think it will be, it's Sexyama's fight to win. It will be a fairly impressive debut for the welterweight division's freshest (& sexiest) face. The Prince of Swagger via decision.
• Heavyweight Bout: Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo
It's 2012. Brock Lesnar is retired after consecutive drubbings. Fedor Emelianenko is barely, or just outside the top ten at heavyweight. Mark Hunt, of all people, is relevant and on a winning streak in the most significant heavyweight division on the planet. If I would have told you that two years ago you would have shit yourself. And I wouldn't have blamed you. In fact, I probably would've joined you. Not to make it weird or anything.
Cheick Kongo is enjoying a nice resurge in relevancy and is unbeaten in his past four outings. He shut down the previously unbeaten Matt Mitrione, scored a dramatic, unreal comeback win over Pat Barry in one of 2011's most memorable moments to boot. Before that, he bested Paul Buentello, but drew against the rising Travis Browne due to his infatuation with Browne's shorts.
On paper, this bout looks similar to Kongo's fight against Antoni Hardonk. And I expect Kongo's gameplan to be the same. You see, Kongo has earned the label of being a world-class striker and gets promoted as a wrecking ball on the feet by the UFC in order to generate hype. But one dissappointing thing about The French Sensation is that he is a coward. No pun intended with his French heritage, but he has a knack for being scared to stand and trade with opponents who posses even decent stand-up skills or power. The first instance I can recall of it is him turning into an impromptu wrestler after being blasting by Heath Herring. From there, it's been rinse and repeat. Including guys he's clearly better than in the stand-up game like Paul Buentello. Even if Kongo is more than capable on the feet, he instead chooses to pin opponents against the cage and just hold them there, blasting with an occassional knee, legal or not. Do not think I'm confusing strategy with cowardice, either. Kongo inexplicably seems to go against his skillset at times.
In this case, though, Mark Hunt IS the better striker. In fact, his crowning of K-1 World Grand Prix Champion in 2001 literally means the term world-class striking isn't just being thrown around because. Kongo was a kickboxer who, while competent, was just decent on the European circuit. Hardly the terror that the Super Samoan, who plagued K-1 was.
In order to win this, Kongo HAS to pin Hunt to the cage and drag him to the canvas where he can implement his beastly ground and pound. The other option would be to catch one of Hunt's staple leg kicks and follow him to the ground. Hunt is deceptively fast for his size and will have to work to counter Kongo's forward movement with his counter-striking. Ultimately, Kongo will not only have to wade through counter strikes in order to get the fight where he wants it, but also hold Hunt in place, which is no easy task, especially considering his thirty pound deficiency and Hunt's raw strength. Mark Hunt. Brutal first round knockout.
Light-Heavyweight Bout: Quinton Jackson vs. Ryan Bader
Expect this fight to look a lot like Jackson's against Hamill in many fashions. Quinton will have to put his best sprawling shoes on and work to tag Bader on the feet, while largely not having much to worry about in terms of the other man's striking ability. But the recurring question is just how much gas does Quinton really have left in the tank. The missed weight surely has an explanation, but it's not going to do anything to quell the naysayers calling for his retirement.
I was sitting in-person for Bader's last fight in San Jose at 139 where he caught Jason Brilz early with a lunging right hand and ended his night. One thing I've noticed lately about Bader's game is his flawed movement. He stands incredibly flat-footed, and scuttles around. He really has to dig deep into his wrestling roots in order to have a chance in hell against the man they call Rampage. While Bader's loss to Jones is forgiveable, his getting dropped and tapped by Tito is not.
Rampage's loss to Bones is understandable as well. Though it did instill strong doubt as to whether Jackson would ever hold the belt again, it in no way signifies he is done. Rampage isn't quite in that spot where he's only taking on novelty fights (ala most of the latter portion of Randy Couture's career) and is still a top light heavyweight. Questions of motivation aren't enough to buy Darth Bader a victory, either. Plus, fighting in Japan should make no one wonder whether Rampage wants to fight, especially considering he requested to.
In the end, as long as Rampage's weight cut wasn't injury-related (and it may be, considering that even with qustions of motivation, he's always been professional about making weight) it's only a matter of time before he blasts Bader with the kill shot. Quinton Jackson via TKO in front of his 'hometown' crowd.
• Lightweight Title Fight: Frankie Edgar (c) vs. Benson Henderson
In what may turn out to be the event's fight of the night, the Land of the Rising Sun is treated to a lightweight clash of epic proportions. Frankie "The Answer" Edgar, now being dubbed the Rocky Balboa of MMA, defends his crown against surging contender "Smooth" Ben Henderson. Both guys are difficult not to like, with each man's background story being easily endearing.
This is one of those fights that I wouldn't touch if I was a betting on the event. I'm not going to be majorly shocked with either outcome. But the way I see it is rather simple in comparison to some of the other bouts on the card, in spite of the bout's even matchup. The champ has the speed advantage, wrestling advantage, and the better hands. I'll concede submission offense and defense to Bendo, and I'm sure he has some surprises for Edgar to boot. But in short, Edgar has The Answer for Smooth. Frankie Edgar by unanimous decision.
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