Crystal Ball: UFC 144 Edition

Submitted by Jacked The Ripper

Photo Credit: Zuffa, LLC

Main Card:

• Middleweight: Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch
Tim Boetsch's middleweight career has been off to a pleasant start. Some feel he's being thrown to the wolves by drawing Anderson Silva's last title challenger in this outing, but I disagree. Boetsch presents the strength and potential style to muscle Okami around the same way Sonnen did. A good chin, brute power, and some judo chops (see what I did there) make Boetsch a formidable opponent, even for A-list opposition. He's made it clear that he should have more eyes on his career than most surging middleweights. The problem is Boetsch doesn't posess the speed of Sonnen, nor does he posess the gas tank to keep the same frenetic, relentless pace that Sonnen put on Okami. Few do, and this isn't to say Boetsch has garbage cardio, it's just that it's not elite. Also standing in his way is that his style is one that Okami is used to dealing with. I expect Okami to find his way out of a few wild striking exchanges and some bullying to take a forgettable decision like the old Okami was known for. The only X-factor here for upset potential may be if Okami's not motivated after falling to the champ after finally receiving his long-awaited title shot. Still, though. Okami by decision.

• Featherweight Bout: Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski
In a battle to potentially determine the next victim contender to the throne of Jose Aldo, we have an intriguing match-up between two well-traveled verterans of the sport. Bart Palaszewski is currently enjoying his status as something of a hot commodity after his Chuck Liddell-esque destruction of Tyson Griffin. Hioki, on the other hand, displayed the now-routine Octagon jitters, though came out on top against a game George Roop. Walking away with a W in your first UFC outing is always an accomplishment, even though the performance was underwhelming. It's hard to tell whether 'Bartimus' either isn't well-rounded enough to sustain a hot streak, or whether he simply was oversized at his previous weight. Still, though, his success has been comparable to Pat Healy in that he wins fights he shouldn't (i.e. Pettis at a weight heigher than his current class), though is always a stern test for anyone in the division with consistency being his only flaw holding him back. A win over Hioki would put Palaszewski in line for gold, the one thing missing from his soon to be 50-fight career. Unfortunately for the inked-up featherweight, I think Hioki's well-rounded game and hometown motivation will enable him to manage a definitive decision over a game Bartimus. In Bart's favor, though, I'm inclined to believe his hair would impress the likes of Heath Herring and Dennis Rodman.

• Lightweight Bout: Anthony Pettis vs. Joe Lauzon
In a bout that is sure to deliver fireworks, be it a slugfest or a tactical battle, the last WEC Lightweight Champ, Anthony Pettis, attempts to get in the mix by derailing the momentum of repeat spoiler, Joe Lauzon. Lauzon hopes to remind people that he shouldn't be the underdog as often as billed, thus making a case for a potential contender label of his own. Pettis may be getting labeled as the more one-dimensional of the two because of the way in which he lost to Clay Guida, but I see the two as being equally well-rounded. Pettis is great off his back, even though I'd give Lauzon the overall advantage on the floor by a measurable margin. Lauzon, on the other hand, is perfectly competent on the feet, though Pettis is the clear superior in this department. All in all, I wouldn't be shocked to see either man appear victorious. In the end, though, I see Pettis shining through in his ability to keep the fight standing enough to pepper Lauzon and drill him with significant strikes being the key to victory. Anthony Pettis via competitive, yet clear-cut unanimous decision.

• Welterweight Bout: Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields
Both men are in desperate need of a win here to not only remain in the mix, but remain in the good graces of UFC brass. The eyes tend to be on Akiyama as the promotions' bigger failure with some going as far as saying he's been the biggest bust ever. I disagree; in fact, between the two, I think Shields has been more dissappointing. Akiyama, perhaps unfairly, was pinned with the high-hopes of being the man to defeat Anderson Silva by Dana White. In spite of a well-rounded game, middleweight proved to be too much for Akiyama, although he was able to give the division's major players fits aside from Vitor Belfort. In the end, it is clear that Akiyama is most definitely UFC-level, just not an A-lister. He hopes to restore his initial high-hopes and reinvent his career Madonna-style at 170.

I believe Shields to be the larger bust after the UFC almost-immediately thrust him into title contention, essentially billing him as GSP's next opponent before he'd even debuted against Martin Kampmann. His success in Strikeforce and other non-UFC promotions was played up to epic proportions, with his reputation being pushed as a top pound-for-pound player. Since his arrival, he's gone 1-2. Or 0-3, depending on whether you subscribe to the theory that Kampmann won that night. Unlike Akiyama, all of his performances have been easily forgettable, aside from maybe just the Jake Ellenberger fight, albeit for the wrong reasons.

Shields' best chance is pinned upon his ability to implement his specific brand of the ground game, coined, American Jiu Jitsu. His best bet is to clinch with Akiyama and attempt to drag the Japanese-Korean to the ground and implement his dominant top-game submissions. Or perhaps hope that Akiyama will judo throw him into a position where he can work his magic.

Akiyama enjoys a clear-cut advantage in the stand-up. He hit with plenty of power at middleweight, and that power will only multiply in comparison to his smaller welterweight counterparts. He will be able to toss his new opponents to the mat with greater ease given his strength advantage. His submission game has always been more than competent, with his only submission loss being accounted for at the hands of cardio, rather than Chris Leben being better than him on the floor.

A cut to a new weight class is always a huge X-factor and Akiyama yet-again finds himself being fed to the wolves immediately. The other most significant X-factor is where the fight takes place. Although Akiyama's no slouch on the ground, Shields has proven time and time again that he is on another level with his submission game. And while Shields can tolerate the stand-up game long enough to implement his game or (usually) not get finished on the feet, Akiyama posesses the ability to end his night in violent fashion.

In the end, Akiyama will be able to keep the fight standing and avoid being submitted when it hits the floor. If it's standing as long as I think it will be, it's Sexyama's fight to win. It will be a fairly impressive debut for the welterweight division's freshest (& sexiest) face. The Prince of Swagger via decision.

• Heavyweight Bout: Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo
It's 2012. Brock Lesnar is retired after consecutive drubbings. Fedor Emelianenko is barely, or just outside the top ten at heavyweight. Mark Hunt, of all people, is relevant and on a winning streak in the most significant heavyweight division on the planet. If I would have told you that two years ago you would have shit yourself. And I wouldn't have blamed you. In fact, I probably would've joined you. Not to make it weird or anything.

Cheick Kongo is enjoying a nice resurge in relevancy and is unbeaten in his past four outings. He shut down the previously unbeaten Matt Mitrione, scored a dramatic, unreal comeback win over Pat Barry in one of 2011's most memorable moments to boot. Before that, he bested Paul Buentello, but drew against the rising Travis Browne due to his infatuation with Browne's shorts.

On paper, this bout looks similar to Kongo's fight against Antoni Hardonk. And I expect Kongo's gameplan to be the same. You see, Kongo has earned the label of being a world-class striker and gets promoted as a wrecking ball on the feet by the UFC in order to generate hype. But one dissappointing thing about The French Sensation is that he is a coward. No pun intended with his French heritage, but he has a knack for being scared to stand and trade with opponents who posses even decent stand-up skills or power. The first instance I can recall of it is him turning into an impromptu wrestler after being blasting by Heath Herring. From there, it's been rinse and repeat. Including guys he's clearly better than in the stand-up game like Paul Buentello. Even if Kongo is more than capable on the feet, he instead chooses to pin opponents against the cage and just hold them there, blasting with an occassional knee, legal or not. Do not think I'm confusing strategy with cowardice, either. Kongo inexplicably seems to go against his skillset at times.

In this case, though, Mark Hunt IS the better striker. In fact, his crowning of K-1 World Grand Prix Champion in 2001 literally means the term world-class striking isn't just being thrown around because. Kongo was a kickboxer who, while competent, was just decent on the European circuit. Hardly the terror that the Super Samoan, who plagued K-1 was.

In order to win this, Kongo HAS to pin Hunt to the cage and drag him to the canvas where he can implement his beastly ground and pound. The other option would be to catch one of Hunt's staple leg kicks and follow him to the ground. Hunt is deceptively fast for his size and will have to work to counter Kongo's forward movement with his counter-striking. Ultimately, Kongo will not only have to wade through counter strikes in order to get the fight where he wants it, but also hold Hunt in place, which is no easy task, especially considering his thirty pound deficiency and Hunt's raw strength. Mark Hunt. Brutal first round knockout.

Light-Heavyweight Bout: Quinton Jackson vs. Ryan Bader
Expect this fight to look a lot like Jackson's against Hamill in many fashions. Quinton will have to put his best sprawling shoes on and work to tag Bader on the feet, while largely not having much to worry about in terms of the other man's striking ability. But the recurring question is just how much gas does Quinton really have left in the tank. The missed weight surely has an explanation, but it's not going to do anything to quell the naysayers calling for his retirement.

I was sitting in-person for Bader's last fight in San Jose at 139 where he caught Jason Brilz early with a lunging right hand and ended his night. One thing I've noticed lately about Bader's game is his flawed movement. He stands incredibly flat-footed, and scuttles around. He really has to dig deep into his wrestling roots in order to have a chance in hell against the man they call Rampage. While Bader's loss to Jones is forgiveable, his getting dropped and tapped by Tito is not.

Rampage's loss to Bones is understandable as well. Though it did instill strong doubt as to whether Jackson would ever hold the belt again, it in no way signifies he is done. Rampage isn't quite in that spot where he's only taking on novelty fights (ala most of the latter portion of Randy Couture's career) and is still a top light heavyweight. Questions of motivation aren't enough to buy Darth Bader a victory, either. Plus, fighting in Japan should make no one wonder whether Rampage wants to fight, especially considering he requested to.

In the end, as long as Rampage's weight cut wasn't injury-related (and it may be, considering that even with qustions of motivation, he's always been professional about making weight) it's only a matter of time before he blasts Bader with the kill shot. Quinton Jackson via TKO in front of his 'hometown' crowd.

• Lightweight Title Fight: Frankie Edgar (c) vs. Benson Henderson
In what may turn out to be the event's fight of the night, the Land of the Rising Sun is treated to a lightweight clash of epic proportions. Frankie "The Answer" Edgar, now being dubbed the Rocky Balboa of MMA, defends his crown against surging contender "Smooth" Ben Henderson. Both guys are difficult not to like, with each man's background story being easily endearing.

This is one of those fights that I wouldn't touch if I was a betting on the event. I'm not going to be majorly shocked with either outcome. But the way I see it is rather simple in comparison to some of the other bouts on the card, in spite of the bout's even matchup. The champ has the speed advantage, wrestling advantage, and the better hands. I'll concede submission offense and defense to Bendo, and I'm sure he has some surprises for Edgar to boot. But in short, Edgar has The Answer for Smooth. Frankie Edgar by unanimous decision.

UFC 144 Previews & Predictions: Prelims

Article submitted by Jacked The Ripper

Image Credit: Esther Lin

Another Super Saturday is upon us, and while the drill may be the same for the fans, this cannot be said for Zuffa. In fact, the near exact opposite is the case for the Ultimate Fighting Championship and its brass. The roughly twelve year hiatus from the last UFC event in the Land of the Rising Sun has been a long one. The climate has changed considerably and the powers that be have a lot riding on the potential of creating a new foreign market...potentially the largest fan-base addition this side of Brazil. Tonight the largest MMA promotion in the world sets up its travelling circus in the same venue that housed the former largest MMA promotion in the world: the world-famous Saitama Super Arena.

For those of us still writing, "PRIDE NEVA DIE!" on all our checks, tonight is something special beyond another night of exciting matchups. It's a night of nostalgia-a welcome throwback to an amazing era that still holds a special place in the heart of many fans. I highly recommend taking a look at the stellar, "Ghosts of Saitama," series available for reading at our good friends of MMAMania.

Tonight may be business as usual for UFC and the sport of MMA's newer wave of fans, but for the UFC and for those of us who have experienced the awe and wonder that was Pride Fighting Championships, tonight is about a little bit more than a night of action-packed fights. Tonight, for a few hours, we relive an era that is anything but forgotten.

Preliminary Card
As with both Brazilian events, the UFC has unsurprisingly stocked the fight card with Japanese fighters aplenty, coupled with a few who hold a special place in the eyes of Japanese fans.

• Takeya Mizugaki gets unfairly underrated by analysts due to his losing efforts against the bantamweight division's best. But when your recent losses are made up of names like Faber, Bowles, Jorgensen, and Torres, you're not necessarily a chump, yourself. Mizugaki is comparable to another fighter on tonight's card, Cheick Kongo. Essentially a gatekeeper of the division, albeit arguably more relevant in his relative division. He should highlight the skillset difference between himself and Chris Caraiso and cruise to a decision W.
• Expect Tiequan Zhang to come out with a fire lit under his ass after his recent defeats. That combined with his veteran savy and the Octagon jitters of Issei Tamura should spell a submission victory.
• There's a lot of X-factors in the Steve Cantwell-Riki Fukuda fight, such as the latter's long layoff, Cantwell's recovery, and the fact that Cantwell may choose to adjust his style significantly in order to snag a win. Although I usually never try and pick guys coming off long layoffs, I'm going to go with Fukuda via decision.
• Norifumi Yamamoto vs. Vaughan Lee is an intriguing match-up. Kid Yamamoto exemplifies the recurring tale of the fallen king. Back when Japanese MMA was pushing the sport with honor and tradition, Yamamoto shared more in common with his American counterparts...Littered with tattoos, crazy hair, creepy sneers, and his dedication to wrestling all made him stand out. To top it off, he was an absolute killer, ranking on all major pound-for-pound lists. He now struggles to merely remain relevant and silence those who argue he's merely living nostalgia. Lee is a fresher face who's looking to make a name for himself off of the fallen Yamamoto. The one-time Ultimate Fighter hopeful surely wants to capitalize by getting Yamamoto to the ground where he can utilize his strong transitions and guard passing, which could spell trouble for the veteran. Containing Yamamoto on the ground isn't going to be as easy as one would think. Combine that with Kid's brutality standing up and bulletproof chin and Lee has his work cut out for him. Yamamoto via brutal TKO.
• Takanori Gomi vs Eiji Mitsuoka represents a similar type of stylistic matchup Gomi has faced since joining the UFC more or less. It's a shame, too. I'm not saying anyone should be given gimme fights, but I find this chronic booking of bad stylistic match-ups for The Fireball Kid a bad business move. He has potential to be a more value commodity if booked for fireworks from time to time, rather than just being brought in as a temporary means to build a few stars with his name value. Mitsuoka has impressive grappling credentials, manages to score mount often, has a strong-based top game, and has legit wrestling to compliment his submission game. One could argue that he may be a worse match-ups in some capacity than some of Gomi's previous few. Still, if Gomi's recent trend of being hesitant to pull the trigger is broken, which I expect to be the case in front of his homeland, a motivated Gomi spells trouble for Mitsuoka. While Mitsuoka isn't atrocious on the feet, Gomi doesn't have to worry about being conned into a ploy stand-up to set up a takedown like he did against Diaz or Florian. I expect Gomi to predict the takedown even moreso since it's his opponent's only real option and be ready. As long as that's the case, it's only a matter of time until he separates Mitsuoka from his senses. Gomi via blistering KO.

Stay tuned for breakdowns of the main card fights.

Spreading the Wealth: UFC Fighters Zuffa Needs to Trade to Strikeforce

Submitted by Jack3dTheRipper, in what will be the 1st entry in a multi-part series of columns.

Photo Credit: Caged Insider

Another day, another Strikeforce fighter turns in his Strikeforce gloves for a pair of UFC gloves. Okay, so maybe the takeover hasn't been happening that fast. But it is in no way a secret that the brass at Zuffa has had an itchy trigger finger in its poaching of Strikeforce talent. In lieu of Strikeforce's increasingly thinning roster, I propose Zuffa trades several of their combatants, better-served for Strikeforce.

The counter-argument to this has validity, though. That being the stance that the UFC's expansion of show quantity has lead to weaker cards. This, to me, is a moot point. Strikeforce is still doing a significantly less amount of shows annually in comparison. Thus allowing UFC to call upon the starpower of any of its traded fighters when needed. In fact, in order for traded fighters to maintain a full-time schedule, they may have to fight in both leagues. With that being said, let's get the list started.....

Light-Heavyweight: Brandon Vera

Background:
This first choice should come as a surprise to no one. Brandon Vera is a guy who is not (or at the very best barely) UFC level at this point in his career. True, he can compete with the best guys once in a blue moon, but the UFC has cut guys who can make much better claims on their resumes than that. Brandon Vera is currently employed on a technicality due to Thiago Silva having hot piss after their scuffle. Before that he was employed due to his initial hot streak, or in case the UFC ever went to the Phillipines. Thankfully, those of us who grew tired of watching more skilled guys get cut while Vera phoned in performance after performance got a break when Mr. Mark Munoz rose to power. In Munoz we got a new fighter to suit the Filipino culture. And better yet-he's actually good. Ah, I kid Brandon Vera, I kid. Well...sort of. The Truth (pun intended) is that Vera spent what should have been the prime of his career on the sidelines arguing with his manager. Many claim he never was that good to begin with, capitalizing on a stream of wins over borderline name fighters, stylistically favorable match-ups, and one long-forgotten win over a one-legged Frank Mir. Luckily for Vera, no one-not even Mir-gives a shit about seeing a rematch. Even Vera, himself, has to know what would happen should those stars align.

When fans speak of Vitor as never having lived up to his potential, it seems a bit unfair as his list of losses only includes the absolute best of the best. The difference here is people expected Vitor to be the best of all time, which he in no way is. On the flipside, fans often speak of seeing the 'old Vera' appear the same way they do Vitor. Both points are invalid, but for different reasons. Vitor of new is better and more evolved than the mythical, 'Vitor of old'. The 'Vera of old' can still be seen. He appears nearly every time he's pit against lesser competition. Notice a pattern?

Reasoning:
In spite of how it might read so far, this article isn't meant to hate on Brandon Vera. Quite the opposite. In fact, the purpose of this article is to better the career of The Truth. Although Vera may have the skillset to compete with A-listers, he doesn't have the mind to. There are many reports of Vera skipping training sessions and being elsewhere, mentally, before fights. At age 34, it is unlikely that this is going to change. The only viable answer in my eyes? Strikeforce.

Vera's Benefit:
This is where Vera's 'coast on talent' mentality can find him more success. Strikeforce's paper-thin light-heavyweight division would be equally as well off with his addition as he would. In Strikeforce, Vera immediatley becomes a contender with name recognition and provides some intriguing match-ups. Here he finds an opportunity to rebuild his legacy and a chance to find worth to his career. He can go from being a minor scootmark in MMA history to a remembered commodity.

Zuffa's Benefit:
If Dana White really wants to keep Strikeforce around and fix it, he's going to need more fighters. This is going to take both an influx of rising talent from free agency and the trading of UFC veterans. With his name recognition, Vera can find himself job security as a big fish in a small pond. He will no-doubt boost ticket sales more than the rising as-of-yet-unheralded stars of tomorrow. A situation worth solving when you look at Strikeforce's sales versus show cost charts. Better yet is that Vera has a much larger chance of going on that tear he was always supposed to do. This way when a fight night needs a headliner or UFC eventually expands to the Phillipines, they have another Filipino who actually would be marketable as legitimate. And that's The Truth.