Monday, January 16, 2012

UFC on FX 1 Predictions: Guillard vs Miller

Dana White Dissapointed with ESPN

Love or hate the guy, Dana White is always keeping things real!

Take Your Pick: UFC 142 Edition

Article submitted by Jack3dTheRipper.
Photo credit: Oileng P.

Last weekend gave us a sweet Strikeforce event to satisfy our MMA palate, and for the second weekend in a row, we get to sit down to a lovely Saturday night of combat sports. This time-UFC. The venue: Rio De Janiero, Brazil. Zuffa really is the gift that keeps on giving. Without further ado….

Preliminary Card:
• Mike Pyle’s a great gatekeeper at welter. He’ll cruise to a decision over Ricardo Funch.
• Omigawa will do the same over Yuri Alicantra.
• Thiago Tavares will continue this trend with a decision W over Sam Stout in a potentially gritty fight.
• Gonzaga will score a technical knockout over Edinaldo Oliveira in the first frame.
• Antonio Carvahal will defeat Felipe Arantes in some way or another…probably decision.

Main Card:

• Lightweight: Terry Etim vs. Edson Barboza

Two 155lb spark plugs are set to go to war in a fight many will have their eye on for fight of the night. Both have something to prove in an attempt to stand out in the crowded B-level of the lightweight division. Apparently no one’s told them when you reach the A-level, things get even more complicated…just ask Jim Miller, Melvin Guillard, Joe Lauzon, Dennis Siver, George Sotiropolous, Evan Dunham, Clay Guida, or Donald Cerrone, or Anthony Pettis. Basically anyone not named Frankie Edgar or Benson Henderson.

The Brazilian-blooded Barboza will surely look to sling leather as always. It’s no secret that the bread and butter of his offense standing is his kicks. He’s become known for them, and surely Etim will expect to have to dodge and block more than a couple on Saturday night. Unfortunately for Etim, Barboza has an uncanny knack for landing with his legs, and landing often. Barboza also is not typically looking to sit back and fire singular power shots, but rather looks to pepper foes with blistering combinations. Etim is capable on his feet, but it is Barboza who will hold a distinct advantage in this area. I do not believe Etim will be able to get on the inside and give his opponent the same trouble fellow countryman Ross Pearson did.

Though Barboza is no slouch on the ground, Etim will hold a similarly distinct advantage in the submission department as well as the wrestling (though neither are great here) to round out what should be a ground-centric gameplan. No matter who wins, this one’s not going to be a blowout. Both have a fair chance, but Barboza should be able to keep Etim on the outside with his strikes to edge out a gritty decision.


• Welterweight: Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater

Young Carlo Prater is something of an anomaly in the MMA world, in his boasting of a veteran resume of 40 fights despite only being thirty years old. His replacement of Siyar Bahazadura makes for a less-hyped, though still compelling-enough fight. His opponent? Young upstart Brazilian firecracker, Erick Silva. Prater’s made a career out of tooling low level opponents and losing to real-deal fighters. He does, however, boast a few name wins over the likes of Guillard, Condit, Healy, and Fischer, a couple of whom he beat early in their respective careers. Condit did, in fact, avenge his loss down the line.

At this point in time, these two are at a crossroads. Unless something changes, Prater seems set in his role, though Erick Silva is on a fast track to a potentially promising career. On paper, this match seems even, and it is competitive. But I am of the thought that Silva’s going to stick around for a while, and would even if the UFC wasn’t looking to market new Brazilians in their homeland. This will be a showcase fight for Silva, who will blast Prater with a nasty, unseen strike, thrown with quick athleticism and shocking accuracy inside the first round, or at least within the second.

• Middleweight: Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Massenzio

Man, the UFC’s booking of Rousimar Palhares is frustrating from a fan’s perspective. He consistently proves he obliterates B-level or lower fighters yet only gets brought up to the A-list fights in stylistically unfavorable match-ups to showcase a struggling top fighter who needs a win. Palhares can seek solstice in the fact that he was competitive against Dan Henderson and (sort of) in the fact that it was his own stupidity, not lack of skill, that cost him the fight against Nate Marquardt. The man has a likeable personality when he’s not being a headcase….though that tends to happen more often than it should (which, in retrospect, may be tied into the UFC’s hesitance to market him better). Either way, it’s a crime when the man gets shoved in the preliminary card so it’s great that he’s being showcased on the main card in a fight that he should win in exciting fashion, even if his opponent’s name won’t do anything for his resume.

Mike Massenzio is a tough customer in his own right. He’s a solid gatekeeper for new middleweights and brings the fight. Unfortunately for him, he doesn’t offer many tools, nor has he shown the necessary growth from fight to fight that could shuttle him up the ranks. Even more unfortunate for Mikey? The backbone of his arsenal, his wrestling, only serves to stick him in the quicksand-like territory of Paul Harris. His striking is typically only used to blend into his wrestling to close the distance into a clinch situation. This makes him equally susceptible to falling into one of Rousimar’s bear trap-like submissions. Rousimar’s stand-up has improved somewhat, though, so these two may be nearly on the same level in this department. In fact, Palhares may hold the advantage in the striking power department.

No matter how you slice this one, the evidence points to Mike Massenzio ending the night with one of his limbs in severe pain. Rousimar Palhares, appendage submission-second round.

• Middleweight: Vitor Belfort vs Anthony Johnson

Anthony Johnson’s long-awaited acceptance of his inner fat kid has brought us to the co-main event of the evening. The UFC apparently has high hopes for Johnson at middleweight because they’re giving him a top five (or top three, depending on who you ask) opponent in The Phenom. The best Johnson ever did at 170lbs was getting in the mix, though he never reached the point of being regarded as one of the top contenders. Fortunately for him, the move up makes more sense, even in a sport where struggles tend to mean a drop in weight. But Belfort will be no short task, so here’s hoping for Rumble’s sake he borrowed some horse meat from Alistair Overeem. Belfort, on the other hand, finds himself in a dangerous spot here. Though his next move of coaching opposite fellow Brazilian legend, Wanderlei Silva is already predetermined, a loss here will drop his stock exponentially. If he wins, then fans will write it off as just beating a bloated welterweight (though Johnson is anything but).

As if there weren’t enough storylines going into this fight already, Anthony “Crumble” Johnson missed weight by a whopping 11lbs, thus edging out Travis Lutter for the worst instance of missing weight title. Not exactly a prestigious one, either. Though the explanation of needing to rehydrate due to illness and numbness in his legs leads one to believe why this fight is even taking place or implies that Johnson is fibbing. Due to his sub-par attitude in addressing his weight issues and essentially letting the world know that he doesn’t give a shit, I’m going to assume it’s probably the latter, though no matter how you slice it, it’s irresponsible.

After the Baldfather’s recent statements that Johnson’s likely fighting for his job, you can pretty much throw out what was quite possibly Johnson’s only chance-that being lay & pray on Belfort for the entire fifteen minutes like he did to Dan Hardy. Truth be told, even with that gameplan on the table, I have no idea why so many are picking Johnson to win. He’s untested at middle(chubby?)weight, fighting one of the best in the division, and his biggest win was when he fought totally out of his element in a snoozer against Dan Hardy because he was afraid to stand with him and take chances. Again, given that that is likely out of the window if Johnson enjoys having a job, then who is his biggest win while employing his traditional, stand-up gameplan? Charlie Brenneman, that’s who. So I’m not exactly sure how that adds up to him being able to knockout the best guy he’s ever faced by far who’s only really been knocked out once by some guy named Anderson Silva who’s supposed to be sorta okay from what I hear.
Belfort, on the other hand, has earned a reputation for unfulfilled potential. I believe this to be due to the ultra-high expectations he set early in his career. His only losses have come to Liddell, Couture, Sakuraba, Ortiz, Overeem, Henderson and Silva…..not exactly sub-par competition. The truth is, whether or not he ever wins another title, Belfort is a legend…it’s just that a lot of fans expected him to be the best of all time, which he certainly is not. Before he came in overweight, I was thinking the longer this thing went beyond halfway through the first round, the more it favored Johnson. But now I expect him to have worse cardio than Belfort.

The bottom line: Belfort hits faster, harder, and is more well-rounded. Johnson’s best chance to win is to lay and pray, but his inactivity on top will lead to stand-ups by the referee wherein the UFC’s longest-tenured fighter will at some point blitzkrieg Crumble Johnson with a blistering knockout within the first round.

• Main Event-Featherweight Title: Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes

First off, let me say that I’m disappointed yet again in the UFC’s marketing plan for this fight. While they’ve done a good job building up the champ in the past, highlighting his rags to riches story and humble beginnings that remain present in his character today, they haven’t totally hammered it into fans’ heads as much as they could. Instead most ad pieces revolve around the dominant champion defending against the guy who’s ‘really good’, who were lead to believe is going to win, quite possibly. What they should be doing is marketing Mendes for who he is-the unlikely story of the college kid who’s now living the dream. If the UFC is going to bulk up the amount of shows they have, they risk over-saturation and low buy rates if they just recycle the same story over and over to sell title fights. Here’s an idea: save the great guy vs. really good guy storyline for when you literally have no story to go on and neither guy’s talker. That’s not the case here, so why not try and make the fighters more relatable to fans so they identify with them. That’s how you build followings.

I must say, I’m really tempted to pick Chad Mendes here for a number of reasons. I don’t believe cardio’s going to be an issue. Not saying I think it will be with Aldo in this fight because I’m sure he’s training his Brazilian ass off for this show in from of the homeland, but I still would wager that Mendes’ cardio has the edge. While Aldo’s ground game has been hyped as potentially his biggest asset, I’m not going to buy into it being a significant threat to a cautious Mendes, no matter how much Joe Rogan tries to sell it. Lastly, if Hominick (gasp, a Canadian!) has the wrestling chops and top game to smother Aldo, I think Mendes will do just fine.

On the contrary, Jose Aldo is….Jose Aldo. It’s difficult to bet against the man. In the Florian fight, he lost the first round, unquestionably. But unlike many of his counterparts, he did what a true champion would-he changed up his gameplan and did what he needed to do to readjust intra-fight and won the rest of the fight. There’s no need to break down Aldo’s striking as was done for the Florian and Hominick fights (two guys who have impressive striking credentials). The gap between his and Money’s hands is so great that we’ll just say Aldo’s is better and leave it at that. If you have to ask why and how, then you haven’t been paying attention to either of these men. His jiu jitsu is undoubtedly better, but I’m not sure it’s enough to submit Mendes or threaten enough to make him think twice about the takedown.

With all of that being said, I look at this fight and a couple things jump out at me that I may have initially overlooked. The first being that I absolutely do not see Mendes possessing the finishing ability to put Aldo away. This means that Mendes will have to consistently score takedowns, put Aldo against the fence, and use smothering top control for twenty-five minutes to win. The second is that Aldo has likely trained the hardest he ever has going into a huge title defense in front of his home country. His cardio will be good enough that he will still be nearly as dangerous in the later rounds as he is in the first. At some point, Aldo’s going to catch Mendes and end his night violently, even if he has to sacrifice a few rounds beforehand to do so.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

The Morning After Pill: Rockhold vs. Jardine Edition

Submitted by Jack3dTheRipper
The weekend brought the world of MMA yet another entertaining Strikeforce event. And there’s something to be said for that. After all, it wasn’t that long ago that it seemed like Strikeforce was Zuffa’s wart it was about to freeze off. At any rate, it’s good to see Strikeforce both showing up and delivering. At any rate, I have since treated the event like one would treat news of their teenage daughter’s pregnancy and gave it time to sink in.

The running trend of the night was veterans schooling their overmatched, comparatively green foes, aside from a newy middleweight Jardine blowing it in true Jardine fashion against middleweight champ, Luke Rockhold.
Tarec Saffiedine picked up a nice win in a matchup of two 170-lbers currently attempting to break into that next level. The Lebanese youngster is on a nice roll, and has proved that he’s worth keeping around. Though this fight should’ve served more to showcase potential, the current thin roster means that any win is worth twice as much. Plus, props for toughing it out to WIN a decision with a broken freaking arm! It’s harder to predict Strikeforce booking than UFC’s, but I see him being logically pitted against a struggling veteran, like the male (though he may have less testosterone than his wife) Cyborg.

If Tarec Saffiedine fought a good fight on a broken arm, what’s your excuse for a perfectly healthy stinker? Tyrone Woodley has major credentials, but thus far has done a fantastic job of ensuring everyone gets un-excited about his career at the higher level. This was a lackluster fight and quite frankly, Woodley can do better. I’m not playing armchair quarterback here, but he’s proved he’s better than this before and has thus set a better standard. If he keeps winning like this, his nickname’s gonna change from T-Wood to Bitch. As in, Black Jon Fitch, because Zuffa won’t be handing out any title shots to him. Then again, it is Strikeforce. Predicted next fight: Woodley vs. Marius Zaromskis or the winner of Daley and Kazuo Misaki. Mein can face the loser, unless this loss in a dull fight results in a trip back to prelims.

Muhammad Lawal, the ‘veteran’, gave a strong showing against his overmatched, albeit undefeated ‘rookie’, who had more fights than he. Apparently wearing a skirt only enrages your opponent, because King Mo beat Lorenz Larkin down in the second round like he owed him money. Lawal should earn an opponent with some real name value in his next bout, with possibilities including a rematch with Mousasi or Cavalcante. I’d say Sobral was a possibility, but the two are great friends who’ve publicly made their lack of interest in fighting one another apparent. As for Larkin, he’ll get another B-level foe and in the meantime, will have plenty of time to remember that only Melvin Manhoef can get away with rocking a skirt in the cage.

It’s hard to imagine blowing your big potential coming out party more than Adlan Amagov did. When your only significant offense maneuver was a blatantly illegal knee and you proceeded to get stomped in ironic fashion by an immediately returned legal flying one, you didn’t exactly make a lasting impression…unless you count being on “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler’s highlight real. Amagov was highly touted with some legitimate credentials, but in a game where you’re only as good as your last outing, people will forget him (if he was even on their radar in the first place) until he proves them otherwise. I believe he’s capable, and see him being pitted against Ronaldo Souza or Melvin Manhoef next. Lawler didn’t answer the cardio question which surprisingly popped up in his last bout, but it doesn’t matter when you blitz your opponent in such brutal fashion. Lawler did what he does best and notched another quick KO under his belt. He may have been written off as an A-lister after a recent rough patch that followed a spectacular post-UFC run, but people forget Lawler is only 29, has taken care of himself, and is still hungry. He should be around for a while longer and should have hopefully closed the book on ANY talk of him being done. Predicted next fight: Antwain Britt or Yancy Medeiros.

Let me start the main event thoughts by saying that I think Luke Rockhold has caught a case of the ‘Bones fever’. That’s not to mean he’s a Jones fan, but rather my terminology for the case of a young champion who got where he is rather quickly (and unexpectedly), only to undergo a personality switch and become cocky with a strong shot of annoying mixed in. Ever since the fight was booked, it was apparent that Rockhold went from being the young, positive, promising underdog kid everyone could relate to, to being his own biggest fan. Bones still at least seems likeable at times, and at least has, uh, I don’t know?....a reason or two to brag! Rockhold’s biggest win was a controversial decision over Ronaldo Souza and a stoppage over the newly middleweight, Keith Jardine. So, if you’re asking yourself why young Luke thinks he deserves to be in the upper echelon of the UFC when he hasn’t even exactly cleaned out the ultra-thin roster of Strikeforce, then you’re amongst friends.

As far as the fight itself, there’s much less to say. Correct me if I’m wrong, but at 6’2” with an off-season weight of 230 plus lbs, Keith Jardine seemed like one of the biggest 205’ers. Rumor has it he had to pull a James Irvin and drop nearly 20lbs on weigh in day. I hope his middleweight experiment is over. Speaking of experiments, it almost seems like fighting is an experiment for Jardine. He’s spent his whole life doing dangerous jobs like mining and bounty hunting for a paycheck, and it seems like this is no different. He’s never going to be the best or get back to the title hunt like he once was, but he’s content to throw leather with anyone and he’s going to make it a fight while it lasts, win or lose. I was never of the thought that Keith’s chin was an issue in every fight. Don’t get me wrong, it’s easier to hit lights out physically with Jardine, but sometimes he’ll turn in a performance like he did against Jackson, Hamill, or Mousasi (all loses) that show that if he actually plays defense and sticks to his defensive instincts, it doesn’t mean his chin’s a giant arrow pointing to the ‘off’ button. At the same time, I believe that if the problem hasn’t been fixed now, it won’t be. Jardine will remain just fine offensively.

The fight itself went as expected in that it was a fun scrap while it lasted. At first glance it appeared like it may have been an early stoppage, but upon replaying the video, it was clear that Jardine went limp for a moment ala Fedor in the Henderson fight and the lights were on but nobody was home. A lot of people were picking “The Dean” to win here, but it just wasn’t meant to be. Rockhold looked great while it lasted and Jardine looked much slower than usual. Again, 185 is not the answer for Jardine, and it showed. Jardine’s chin is blatantly inconsistent, but Rockhold isn’t exactly known for having scary knockout power, even the variety to put Keith to sleep. That’s why if there’s anything to learn from this fight for Keith, it’s that he should go back to light-heavyweight. As for Luke Rockhold, he looked sharp, and got a nice win over a name opponent, and he deserves proper praise. Aside from those whacky kicks, though….they may look flashy, and may even connect, but if he tried that against ANY of the guys he wants to fight, be it Silva, Belfort, etc., I don’t think the risk would be worth the reward….even a lackluster, drained “Dean of Mean” didn’t seem to care about them, much. At the end of the day, I think Tim Kennedy, Robbie Lawler, Ronaldo Souza, or even Melvin Manhoef might have something to say about Luke being ready to face the UFC’s best. All of the aforementioned present unique problems to the champ, who until recently wasn’t even seeing the light of main card on events. Somewhere in San Francisco, Gilbert Melendez is wincing (or chuckling) about Luke Rockhold’s copycat request. Predicted next fight: Tim Kennedy. Predicted next fight for Jardine: Renato Sobral.


**Update: If you’re still on the fence about Rockhold’s newfound personality, don’t hold your breath. A member of his entourage (originally incorrectly reported as a family member), was yelling things up to and including, “Keith Jardine sucks!” at a casino lobby. A bystanding woman (later reported to be Jardine’s mom) proceeded to rush, swing, and connect on the said man, who bailed as security arrived. Huge LOL at Jardine’s mom tying up the score to an even 1-1 between Team Rockhold & Team Jardine. I wonder if Jardine secretly wishes his mom would’ve never gotten involved, like a teased schoolboy whose mom calls the principal to bury her son's bullies. Till next time.