The Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix continues this Saturday, live on Showtime. The event has taken a bit of a blow with the injury of Gina Carano, but the card is still stacked! There are some awesome and interesting match ups. Haven't had access to my video camera this week but thought I would write out my predictions here on the blog. Check back post fights for some afterthoughts!
Alistair Overeem (34-11) vs Fabricio Werdum (14-4-1) (Non-Title Fight)
This is a rematch from their 2006 match up where Werdum submitted Overeem by kimura in the final moments of the fight. Up until he found himself tapping, Overeem was controlling the fight. Most of the fight took place on the ground with Overeem controlling Werdum and avoiding submissions. A lot has changed in 5 years. Alistair Overeeem, current Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion, has beefed up in size and has improved his striking immensely (proving this by winning the 2010 K-1 tournament). Werdum, is coming off the biggest win of his career submitting the legendary Fedor Emelianenko and is looking to continue to surprise.
Overeem is a heavy favorite in this fight and it's tough to pick against him. I think Overeem will fight smarter and keep this fight standing as much as he can. Overeem has a huge advantage on the feet and has the power to finish Werdum. Unlike their first fight, I see Overeem not playing into Werdums strengths and doing all he can to keep this fight a striking battle. Overeem has looked like a beast lately and if he puts the pressure on Werdum I think he will finish the fight with by TKO.
Prediction: Overeem by 2nd Round TKO
Josh Barnett (29-5) vs Brett Rogers (11-2)
A former UFC Champion, Josh Barnett is by far the more experienced fighter in this fight. However, he has been out of action for almost a year and may show some cage rust. Rogers opened a lot of eyes in his battle with Fedor Emelianenko and quick finish of Andre Arlovski. Rogers has the power to finish anyone with a single punch. Barnett will be looking to take this fight to the ground where he should be able to control Rogers. Although Rogers possess the power punch, I think this is quite a mismatch. Barnett has far more skills and really the only way Barnett loses this fight is if he gets caught by a punch much like Rogers did to Arlovski.
Prediction: Josh Barnett by 3rd Round Submission (rear naked choke)
K.J. Noons (10-3) vs Jorge Masvidal (21-6)
With Carano out, we get the Noons vs Masvidal match up on the main card which is a great fight! Noons is coming off his recent three round war with Nick Diaz, falling short by way of decision. Masvidal went the distance in his last fight with Billy Evangelista, earning the victory. However, I was not all that impressed by Masvidal in his last fight. He was noticeably the better fighter over Evangelista but really seemed to lack the tenacity to finish the fight. Noons, a former Strikeforce Champion, is back down to Lightweight which is the right division for him. I think Noons has the better stand up where I think most of this fight will take place. This should be a great battle, glad it made it onto the main card.
Prediction: K.J. Noons by Unanimous Decision
Daniel Cormier (7-0) vs Jeff Monson (42-11)
The rook takes on the veteran. Monson is quite an undersized heavyweight which may put him at a disadvantage in this fight. It's an interesting match up. I wasn't all that impressed by Cormier's stand up in his last fight and feel Monson has the advantage in the striking department. However, Monson also has a solid background in jiu jitsu while Cormier has Olympic caliber wrestling. Does Cormier try and take Monson down and avoid submissions? Or does he attempt to stand and trade? It's tough to call this one but I think Cormier's size will be the factor in this fight. I think he will be able to wrestle this fight to the ground and avoid Monson's subs.
Prediction: Cormier by Unanimous Decision
Valentijn Overeem (29-25) vs Chad Griggs (10-1)
Griggs continues to surprise me. The guy doesn't really look the part of a fighter but shows up and brawls and has proved to be effective with the style. With a record like he has, I'm surprised Overeem continues to fight. I guess he's just one those guys that loves the sport. I think this fight will be a stand up battle. If Griggs can survive the early fury from Overeem I think he has the better gas tank and can fish Overeem later in the fight.
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