The Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale is live this Saturday (6/4) on Spike TV starting at 9 p.m. eastern (9 p.m. for west coast viewers on tape delay). Overall, I was a bit disappointed with Season 13. There weren't really any fighters that caught my attention, I thought the talent level was pretty low, there weren't many exciting fights, and there was zero interaction between Lesnar and Dos Santos (not that it would have amounted to anything since Lesnar just had surgery and Dos Santos now faces Shane Carwin at UFC 131). However, fights are fights and in the end I much rather watch The Ultimate Fighter than anything else on television so no more complaining. I was stoked when I heard Anthony Pettis would be taking on Clay Guida, I think the two best fighters from TUF made it to the finals, and it's great to see Ed Herman back in the UFC after his brutal injury, so I'm actually really looking forward to Saturday's fights. Here's a quick rundown on my thoughts and predictions.
Anthony "Showtime" Pettis (11-1-0) vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida (28-8-0)
I think the Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard rematch had to happen following the draw, but I was disappointed for Pettis because I really wanted to see the unification title fight between WEC and UFC champions and Pettis deserved his shot. Pettis is coming off the matrix kick heard around the MMA world and has a bunch of momentum behind him. I'm pulling for Pettis in this fight and would still really like to see an official unification title fight.
Fan favorite Clay Guida has been on a roll lately. After dropping back to back fights to Diego Sanchez and Kenny Florian, Guida has won his last three fights all by submission. Guida's strengths are his relentless pressure and wrestling. His aggression has cost him in past fights, but Guida himself has said he is now a smarter fighter and we saw this in his latest win over Takanori Gomi. Guida was much more patient and picked his attacks wisely. Guida wins this fight by pressing the action, closing the distance, pushing Pettis up against the cage, and utilizing his wrestling to take Pettis down and control the fight.
Everyone has been waiting to see Anthony Pettis step back into the cage following his impressive decision win over Ben Henderson in the main event of the final WEC event. Pettis's stand up arsenal is crazy. Not only does he throw wild spinning kicks and strikes but he's been landing them consistently. Pettis's strengths are his stand up and submissions. Pettis has an underrated ground game, he has a very active guard which was on display in his fight against Henderson. I think Pettis has more ways than Guida to win this fight. His stand up is superior to Guida, and even if Guida takes this fight to the ground I think Pettis is just as dangerous with his submissions. Although it is his signature look, I think Guida's long hair will cost him in this fight (tougher to get out of a submission).
TUF Finale: Ramsey Nijem (5-1-0) vs Tony Ferguson (11-2-0)
As the Ultimate Fighter show progressed I found myself becoming a fan of Ramsey Nijem. The guy is a little bit on the strange side, but when it comes to fighting he means business. Each time he stepped into the cage, he fought his heart out and you could tell by his tenacity he wants to win this show. Ramsey comes to fight and he will be up in your face the entire time. Junior Dos Santos said early on that Ramsey was the best fighter there. After his semi-final TKO of Chris "Wooo" Cope, Ramsey now has the opportunity to prove Junior right.
On the other hand, Brock Lesnar was saying Tony Ferguson was the best fighter on the show. I started out liking Tony a lot. He was one of the few fighters finishing his opponents and I liked his decision to present himself as a classy, well dressed fighter. I dig it when fighters like GSP, Rashad, Jon Jones dress professionally. I don't think everyone should do it, but when there's a select few, it's cool. So I was down with Tony, that was until he went off on his "black out" drunk tirade. The guy was disgraceful with his remarks and was insincere with his apology. The whole "I dress nice, I have class, I'm a professional" persona went down the toilet for me when that happened. I now not much of a fan of Tony and I don't think he's deserving of repping the "swag" as Evans and Jones put it. On to the the fight prediction.
As mentioned before, I think these are the two best fighters in the finale. Tony has definitely shown that he packs a power punch. He's a tall strong guy with solid stand up. If I remember correctly, he was taken to the ground in his first fight on the show and demonstrated that he's got a decent ground game. However, Ramsey is a pitbull. He pushes the action and has the wrestling ability to take the fight to the ground. I think Ramsey's pressure will surprise Tony, and if Ramsey doesn't get caught by a power punch rushing in, I think Ramsey will eventually get this fight to the ground. Ramsey should then be able to control Tony and work his way to good positioning.
My pick is Ramsey Nijem by 2nd round submission. Ramsey will get Tony's back and end the fight by rear-naked choke.
Ed "Short Fuse" Herman (17-7-0) vs Tim "Crazy" Credeur (13-5-0)
Before I begin this, I just want to say it is awesome to see Ed Herman back in the UFC. Herman suffered one of the more brutal and unfortunate injuries I've seen when he blew out his knee in his fight against Aaron Simpson. Herman hurt his knee in the first round but decided to fight through the pain and continue. Visibly limping and struggling, Herman attempted throw a kick or punch and the weight exerted on his knee made it pop. Herman instantly crumpled to the ground in a heap of pain and the fight was ended. It was tough to watch. It's a great comeback story for the former Ultimate Fighter 3 finalist, and a win would make a return even sweeter.
Both fighters have not stepped into the cage since 2009. Credeur has been battling injuries himself as well. Herman was somewhat underachieving following his Ultimate Fighter 3 stint, dropping fights to up and coming fighters Demian Maia and Alan Belcher. He bounced back earning a decision victory over returning UFC veteran David "The Crow" Loiseau, then hurt his knee in his next fight. Tim Credeur was somewhat of a surprise on the Ultimate Fighter 7. He opened a lot of eyes in his gritty second chance, decision loss, to C.B. Dollaway in the show's semi-finals. Tim showed huge improvements in his fight game winning three fights in a row in the UFC following the Ultimate Fighter show.
This fight will be a brawl and is tough one to call since I neither man has fought for awhile. I have no idea what kind of shape they'll be in, or if ring rust will play a factor. I think Herman is the more well rounded fighter and has a solid ground game, but Tim does have a Black Belt in BJJ and will be tough to submit. I would give Tim a slight advantage in the stand up department. I'll be pulling for Herman, a win would make for a great comeback story, but I think Tim will do enough to pull off a decision win. It should be a close contest.
My pick is Tim Credeur by Split Decision
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