Last weekend gave us a sweet Strikeforce event to satisfy our MMA palate, and for the second weekend in a row, we get to sit down to a lovely Saturday night of combat sports. This time-UFC. The venue: Rio De Janiero, Brazil. Zuffa really is the gift that keeps on giving. Without further ado….
Preliminary Card:
• Mike Pyle’s a great gatekeeper at welter. He’ll cruise to a decision over Ricardo Funch.
• Omigawa will do the same over Yuri Alicantra.
• Thiago Tavares will continue this trend with a decision W over Sam Stout in a potentially gritty fight.
• Gonzaga will score a technical knockout over Edinaldo Oliveira in the first frame.
• Antonio Carvahal will defeat Felipe Arantes in some way or another…probably decision.
Main Card:
• Lightweight: Terry Etim vs. Edson Barboza
Two 155lb spark plugs are set to go to war in a fight many will have their eye on for fight of the night. Both have something to prove in an attempt to stand out in the crowded B-level of the lightweight division. Apparently no one’s told them when you reach the A-level, things get even more complicated…just ask Jim Miller, Melvin Guillard, Joe Lauzon, Dennis Siver, George Sotiropolous, Evan Dunham, Clay Guida, or Donald Cerrone, or Anthony Pettis. Basically anyone not named Frankie Edgar or Benson Henderson.
The Brazilian-blooded Barboza will surely look to sling leather as always. It’s no secret that the bread and butter of his offense standing is his kicks. He’s become known for them, and surely Etim will expect to have to dodge and block more than a couple on Saturday night. Unfortunately for Etim, Barboza has an uncanny knack for landing with his legs, and landing often. Barboza also is not typically looking to sit back and fire singular power shots, but rather looks to pepper foes with blistering combinations. Etim is capable on his feet, but it is Barboza who will hold a distinct advantage in this area. I do not believe Etim will be able to get on the inside and give his opponent the same trouble fellow countryman Ross Pearson did.
Though Barboza is no slouch on the ground, Etim will hold a similarly distinct advantage in the submission department as well as the wrestling (though neither are great here) to round out what should be a ground-centric gameplan. No matter who wins, this one’s not going to be a blowout. Both have a fair chance, but Barboza should be able to keep Etim on the outside with his strikes to edge out a gritty decision.
• Welterweight: Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater
Young Carlo Prater is something of an anomaly in the MMA world, in his boasting of a veteran resume of 40 fights despite only being thirty years old. His replacement of Siyar Bahazadura makes for a less-hyped, though still compelling-enough fight. His opponent? Young upstart Brazilian firecracker, Erick Silva. Prater’s made a career out of tooling low level opponents and losing to real-deal fighters. He does, however, boast a few name wins over the likes of Guillard, Condit, Healy, and Fischer, a couple of whom he beat early in their respective careers. Condit did, in fact, avenge his loss down the line.
At this point in time, these two are at a crossroads. Unless something changes, Prater seems set in his role, though Erick Silva is on a fast track to a potentially promising career. On paper, this match seems even, and it is competitive. But I am of the thought that Silva’s going to stick around for a while, and would even if the UFC wasn’t looking to market new Brazilians in their homeland. This will be a showcase fight for Silva, who will blast Prater with a nasty, unseen strike, thrown with quick athleticism and shocking accuracy inside the first round, or at least within the second.
• Middleweight: Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Massenzio
Man, the UFC’s booking of Rousimar Palhares is frustrating from a fan’s perspective. He consistently proves he obliterates B-level or lower fighters yet only gets brought up to the A-list fights in stylistically unfavorable match-ups to showcase a struggling top fighter who needs a win. Palhares can seek solstice in the fact that he was competitive against Dan Henderson and (sort of) in the fact that it was his own stupidity, not lack of skill, that cost him the fight against Nate Marquardt. The man has a likeable personality when he’s not being a headcase….though that tends to happen more often than it should (which, in retrospect, may be tied into the UFC’s hesitance to market him better). Either way, it’s a crime when the man gets shoved in the preliminary card so it’s great that he’s being showcased on the main card in a fight that he should win in exciting fashion, even if his opponent’s name won’t do anything for his resume.
Mike Massenzio is a tough customer in his own right. He’s a solid gatekeeper for new middleweights and brings the fight. Unfortunately for him, he doesn’t offer many tools, nor has he shown the necessary growth from fight to fight that could shuttle him up the ranks. Even more unfortunate for Mikey? The backbone of his arsenal, his wrestling, only serves to stick him in the quicksand-like territory of Paul Harris. His striking is typically only used to blend into his wrestling to close the distance into a clinch situation. This makes him equally susceptible to falling into one of Rousimar’s bear trap-like submissions. Rousimar’s stand-up has improved somewhat, though, so these two may be nearly on the same level in this department. In fact, Palhares may hold the advantage in the striking power department.
No matter how you slice this one, the evidence points to Mike Massenzio ending the night with one of his limbs in severe pain. Rousimar Palhares, appendage submission-second round.
• Middleweight: Vitor Belfort vs Anthony Johnson
Anthony Johnson’s long-awaited acceptance of his inner fat kid has brought us to the co-main event of the evening. The UFC apparently has high hopes for Johnson at middleweight because they’re giving him a top five (or top three, depending on who you ask) opponent in The Phenom. The best Johnson ever did at 170lbs was getting in the mix, though he never reached the point of being regarded as one of the top contenders. Fortunately for him, the move up makes more sense, even in a sport where struggles tend to mean a drop in weight. But Belfort will be no short task, so here’s hoping for Rumble’s sake he borrowed some horse meat from Alistair Overeem. Belfort, on the other hand, finds himself in a dangerous spot here. Though his next move of coaching opposite fellow Brazilian legend, Wanderlei Silva is already predetermined, a loss here will drop his stock exponentially. If he wins, then fans will write it off as just beating a bloated welterweight (though Johnson is anything but).
As if there weren’t enough storylines going into this fight already, Anthony “Crumble” Johnson missed weight by a whopping 11lbs, thus edging out Travis Lutter for the worst instance of missing weight title. Not exactly a prestigious one, either. Though the explanation of needing to rehydrate due to illness and numbness in his legs leads one to believe why this fight is even taking place or implies that Johnson is fibbing. Due to his sub-par attitude in addressing his weight issues and essentially letting the world know that he doesn’t give a shit, I’m going to assume it’s probably the latter, though no matter how you slice it, it’s irresponsible.
After the Baldfather’s recent statements that Johnson’s likely fighting for his job, you can pretty much throw out what was quite possibly Johnson’s only chance-that being lay & pray on Belfort for the entire fifteen minutes like he did to Dan Hardy. Truth be told, even with that gameplan on the table, I have no idea why so many are picking Johnson to win. He’s untested at middle(chubby?)weight, fighting one of the best in the division, and his biggest win was when he fought totally out of his element in a snoozer against Dan Hardy because he was afraid to stand with him and take chances. Again, given that that is likely out of the window if Johnson enjoys having a job, then who is his biggest win while employing his traditional, stand-up gameplan? Charlie Brenneman, that’s who. So I’m not exactly sure how that adds up to him being able to knockout the best guy he’s ever faced by far who’s only really been knocked out once by some guy named Anderson Silva who’s supposed to be sorta okay from what I hear.
Belfort, on the other hand, has earned a reputation for unfulfilled potential. I believe this to be due to the ultra-high expectations he set early in his career. His only losses have come to Liddell, Couture, Sakuraba, Ortiz, Overeem, Henderson and Silva…..not exactly sub-par competition. The truth is, whether or not he ever wins another title, Belfort is a legend…it’s just that a lot of fans expected him to be the best of all time, which he certainly is not. Before he came in overweight, I was thinking the longer this thing went beyond halfway through the first round, the more it favored Johnson. But now I expect him to have worse cardio than Belfort.
The bottom line: Belfort hits faster, harder, and is more well-rounded. Johnson’s best chance to win is to lay and pray, but his inactivity on top will lead to stand-ups by the referee wherein the UFC’s longest-tenured fighter will at some point blitzkrieg Crumble Johnson with a blistering knockout within the first round.
• Main Event-Featherweight Title: Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes
First off, let me say that I’m disappointed yet again in the UFC’s marketing plan for this fight. While they’ve done a good job building up the champ in the past, highlighting his rags to riches story and humble beginnings that remain present in his character today, they haven’t totally hammered it into fans’ heads as much as they could. Instead most ad pieces revolve around the dominant champion defending against the guy who’s ‘really good’, who were lead to believe is going to win, quite possibly. What they should be doing is marketing Mendes for who he is-the unlikely story of the college kid who’s now living the dream. If the UFC is going to bulk up the amount of shows they have, they risk over-saturation and low buy rates if they just recycle the same story over and over to sell title fights. Here’s an idea: save the great guy vs. really good guy storyline for when you literally have no story to go on and neither guy’s talker. That’s not the case here, so why not try and make the fighters more relatable to fans so they identify with them. That’s how you build followings.
I must say, I’m really tempted to pick Chad Mendes here for a number of reasons. I don’t believe cardio’s going to be an issue. Not saying I think it will be with Aldo in this fight because I’m sure he’s training his Brazilian ass off for this show in from of the homeland, but I still would wager that Mendes’ cardio has the edge. While Aldo’s ground game has been hyped as potentially his biggest asset, I’m not going to buy into it being a significant threat to a cautious Mendes, no matter how much Joe Rogan tries to sell it. Lastly, if Hominick (gasp, a Canadian!) has the wrestling chops and top game to smother Aldo, I think Mendes will do just fine.
On the contrary, Jose Aldo is….Jose Aldo. It’s difficult to bet against the man. In the Florian fight, he lost the first round, unquestionably. But unlike many of his counterparts, he did what a true champion would-he changed up his gameplan and did what he needed to do to readjust intra-fight and won the rest of the fight. There’s no need to break down Aldo’s striking as was done for the Florian and Hominick fights (two guys who have impressive striking credentials). The gap between his and Money’s hands is so great that we’ll just say Aldo’s is better and leave it at that. If you have to ask why and how, then you haven’t been paying attention to either of these men. His jiu jitsu is undoubtedly better, but I’m not sure it’s enough to submit Mendes or threaten enough to make him think twice about the takedown.
With all of that being said, I look at this fight and a couple things jump out at me that I may have initially overlooked. The first being that I absolutely do not see Mendes possessing the finishing ability to put Aldo away. This means that Mendes will have to consistently score takedowns, put Aldo against the fence, and use smothering top control for twenty-five minutes to win. The second is that Aldo has likely trained the hardest he ever has going into a huge title defense in front of his home country. His cardio will be good enough that he will still be nearly as dangerous in the later rounds as he is in the first. At some point, Aldo’s going to catch Mendes and end his night violently, even if he has to sacrifice a few rounds beforehand to do so.
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